What India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty means for Pakistan

In a bold and unprecedented move, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, citing security concerns after a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir. The suspension marks a significant escalation in bilateral tensions, especially as the treaty has been a rare symbol of cooperation between the two nations since its signing in 1960. 

The IWT divides the six rivers of the Indus basin between the two countries: India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan relies heavily on the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) for agriculture, drinking water and hydropower. While India has limited usage rights on the western rivers, the treaty restricts it from altering their flow in ways that would impact Pakistan. 

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If India follows through with this suspension beyond rhetoric, it could significantly affect Pakistan’s water supply. Over 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on irrigation from these rivers, and any reduction in flow could lead to serious economic, environmental, and humanitarian consequences.

So far, Pakistan has not issued an official response, choosing silence amid international speculation. This may be a strategic pause as it weighs its options, whether to respond diplomatically, escalate the matter to international forums, or wait for India’s next move.

India’s action introduces a new and unpredictable variable into regional geopolitics which is the ‘Weaponization of water’ in a volatile and nuclear-armed neighborhood.