Petrol, diesel could become cheaper than water by 2027: JP Morgan report

JP Morgan forecasts Brent crude at $30/barrel by 2027, making oil ₹17.92/litre—cheaper than bottled water—thanks to oversupply outpacing demand

In a startling projection, global brokerage firm JP Morgan has predicted that crude oil prices could plummet to levels unimaginable just a few years ago. According to the report, Brent crude may fall to $30 per barrel by March 2027, making petrol and diesel cheaper than bottled water in India.

At present, Brent crude trades around $62 per barrel. A barrel contains 159 liters, and at an exchange rate of ₹95 to the dollar, the cost of one barrel at $30 would be approximately ₹2,850. This translates to just ₹17.92 per liter of crude oil—lower than the ₹18–20 typically charged for a liter of packaged drinking water.

The implications for India are significant. The country imports nearly 86% of its crude oil, making it highly sensitive to global price movements. A sharp decline in crude costs would ease the burden on the exchequer, reduce fuel inflation, and potentially lower transportation and manufacturing costs across sectors.

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JP Morgan attributes the expected decline to a looming supply glut. While global oil demand is projected to rise by 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.2 million barrels per day by 2027, production from non-OPEC countries—including Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and others—is forecast to outpace consumption. This oversupply is likely to push prices down by more than 50% from current levels.

Brent crude, produced in the North Sea between Britain and Norway, serves as the benchmark for pricing 60–70% of the world’s oil. A sustained fall in its value would reshape energy economics worldwide, especially for import-dependent nations like India.

If JP Morgan’s forecast holds true, the phrase ‘fuel cheaper than water’ may soon move from hyperbole to reality, transforming household budgets and national energy strategies alike.

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